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If you have been following me this year you know that I’m a big under dog supporter, but in tonight’s Beef O’Brady Bowl I’m on the side of Florida International who will play just 250 miles away from campus at Tropicana Field.  Though Marshall has done much of their recruiting in the sunshine state and a lot are going to be “going home” for this game I still feel FIU will have more supporters in the stands making for a very small advantage.  It should be exciting we got two players one from each side that will clearly be playing in the NFL next year in FIU’s T.Y. Hilton WR, and Vinny Curry at DE from Marshall.
 
The real advantage comes on the field and lets first look at both teams season in review.  Marshall was a tough team to figure out but they beat both their conference champions in Southern Miss earlier in the year and we were on Marshall to upset them back in week 2 and they beat Louisville the Big East champion yet they’re dogs here and we are not backing them?  FIU too beat Louisville and has been an up and coming team the last few years.  These two have two common opponents and one thing is for sure the stats don’t lie FIU seems better at each part,  running offense and defense and passing offense and special teams as well.  Marshall ranked 87th in total defense this year 100th in pass defense while FIU was 33rd and were 16th in points allowed.  Now Marshall did face Tulsa, West Virginia, and Houston on their schedule so we can’t say that FIU is that much better than Marshall on defense, but Marshall has struggled whenever they’ve had to face good defenses.  They lost vs. Houston and Tulsa and scored just 23 points combined vs. UCF, Ohio, and Virginia Tech.  FIU’s defense this year has been that type good allowing just 3.39 yards per carry and just 9 TD passes only 3 and picking off 8 in their road/neutral games.
 
For Marshall to be successful they have to run the ball so the freshmen Cato does not have to force the passing game he does have 10 INT’s this season.  However FIU’s run defense has been solid and Marshall has been inconsistent with just 3.55 ypc on the year.  On the flip side I see FIU being able to run it with keddrick Rhodes who has 5 ypc on 224 carries this year.  Marshall’s run defense will be tested as they allowed 4.51 ypc on the road this year.  Let’s get to the passing games.  Wesley Carrol has been a classy senior leader 14 TD to just 4 interceptions.  Marshall will have their hands full when they decide to throw especially to T.Y. Hilton who has 64 receptions for 950 yards and can break open at any time.  Marshall has allowed 18 TD 4 INT in their road games for a 158 QB rating and 66.7% completion rate.  Part of the problem is Vinny Curry who is 6th in sacks is inconsistent and I think Marshall’s greatest strength on defense (Curry) won’t come into play because FIU’s been sacked 13 times all year that’s ranked 17th in the nation.  On the otherside FIU has 33 sacks and Marshall has allowed 26 sacks.  Lastly FIU’s pass defense really came on late allowing just 2 TD passes in the last 7 games.
 
Turnovers – Marshall has given the ball up 12 more times than FIU.  On the road they are -9 while FIU is +6 this could be the difference between a blowout and a close game.  Special teams I feel is another advantage with T.Y. Hilton averaging 32 ypr in the kick off game and 23 in the punt return game.  They may angle their kicks but that still could result in some poor yardage punts.
 
3rd downs Marshall converted 36% on the year 34% on the road, FIU comes in slightly better 38% and 39% on the road.  Defensively advantage also FIU with 36% conversions allowed 41% on the road, Marshall was at 39% and 41%.  The real advantage comes in the red zone.  First FIU had 45 red zone attempts this year while Marshall had 32 that’s 1 RZ attempt a game more than Marshall.  Defensively they’ve allowed 19 fewer attempts that’s like 1.5 per game.  Now Marshall does have the advantage converting them into TD’s with 59% and 47% on the road while FIU is at 47% and 44%.  Defensively though Marshall has allowed 61.5% TD’s 64% on the road while FIU is at 51% and 47%.  Defense wins and if FIU can control their penalties they win this game easily.
 

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